Lies, damned lies, and statistics

I had orginally wanted to blog on some of the more interesting statistics and statistical oddities which have accrued during this year’s six nations — in particular, I had seen the Grauniad message boards creaking under the weight of delighted Welsh and Irish supporters laughing at Chris Robshaw’s famous 11 carries for 2 metres, and I thought that was one hell of an oddity. And although the statistics will never capture the true intensity of any given moment — Sam Warburton’s tackle on Tuilagi only counts as one tackle, after all — there are some very interesting patterns that emerge.

However the problem with the raw data is that it is … deeply fascinating, actually. And can be sliced and diced in many ways. This ties in with the buzz today of who is going to make the Lions tour (and who will start the tests) — particuarly in the one area we seem particularly strong, the back row.

All statistics courtesy of ESPN Scrum. Please note that players have not played the same amount of games thanks to the bloody FFR and injuries.

Tom Croft and Chris Robshaw (England)
The English flankers have been labelled (and even dismissed) as “two 6.5s” — although given Croft’s absence around the park it could even be argued that it is only one 6.5 and his wannabe-winger mate. However if there was ever a player to pick up the slack it is the English captain.

Chris Robshaw leads all home-nation’s flankers in total number and percentage of tackles made (40 in 3 games, and is one of only three flankers to have missed no tackles) and also in carries made. His famous 11 carries for 2 metres is entirely as a result of being the player to take contact for wussy little fly-halves and the like — and he is now at 34 carries for 42 metres in his three games and has finally beaten a defender. He has passed the ball 11 times — approximately 25% of the time he recieves it.

Tom Croft, on the other hand, has been largely anonymous. He has carried 13 times for 46 metres in his three games, beating one defender and making one clean break; and passing an average of once per match. He has however held his own in the line-out, winning 8 from his own throw and stealing 1 against Wales and remains the top line-out flanker in the home nations; however his tackling is nearly the worst, making 22 and missing 4 in three matches.

Both flankers have made a turnover, and both have conceded penalties (Robshaw two).

Stephen Ferris and Sean O’Brien (Ireland)
These two had a fantastic RWC2011 (O’Brien in particular) but give the impression of being a slightly unsettled combination. Perhaps this is a case of picking the two best flankers available regardless of position.

Immediately noticeable are the similarities between the two players statistics: Ferris averages 10 carries a game for 22 metres; O’Brien averages 11.5 carries a game for 28.5 metres. However when considering the quality of opposition it is apparent that Ferris is more of a flat-track bully, his statistics flattered by a romp against Italy, and that O’Brien is more of a big-match player (making twice as many metres on basically the same number of carries against Wales as opposed to Italy). However O’Brien is the most penalised of all the flankers in the home nations (although I’m sure Strokosch may have had something to say about that if he had finished the match against Wales), and neither flankers are winning any turnovers for their teams.

Sam Warburton and Dan Lydiate (and Ryan Jones and numerous others) (Wales)
Ah the diffulties of assessing Wales! Many players have put in a shift on the flank for them, so the statistics are arguably a little meaningless. However there are still some points of interest which we can pick up on. Dan Lydiate in his two games has carried ten times for 22 metres; and made 23 tackles (missing 2). He also passes about 25% of the time he gets the ball. Sam Warburton has had only a game and a half — and in those matches has carried 11 times for 4 metres and made 14 tackles (missing 2). He also puts in his share at the lineout, taking three on his own throw against England alone.

Strangely the most statistically impressive performances have come from Ryan Jones and Steve Shingler — co-incidentally the twoWelsh flankers to have secured a turnover so far. Ryan Jones is the only flanker to have kicked a ball, and he pulls his weight at the lineout and has put in his fair share of tackles (despite missing proportionately more than any other). Steve Shingler is an outstanding footballer (three offloads from ten carries) and didn’t miss a tackle.

It will be interesting to see who Warren Gatland chooses to face France as (not to put too fine a point on it) the work rate from all of these flankers will have to go up to counteract that mighty French back-row.

Ross Rennie and John Barclay (and Alasdair Strkosch) (Scotland)
With this combination it could easily be argued that Andy Robinson has picked two openside flankers — and the statistics go some way to back this up.

Ross Rennie is statistically the best all-round British flanker of the tournament so far — and let’s face it his performances have been magnificent. In three games he has carried 32 times for 114 metres (the greatest distance carried in total and per game by a British flanker so far), making four clean breaks, beating 5 defenders and offloading seven times. He passes as often as he runs and has won 3 turnovers for Scotland. He has 39 tackles (missing 6) — second only to Chris Robshaw.

John Barclay also has the statistics of an openside. In his one-and-a-half games, he has made 20 carries for 20 metres and beaten three defenders. He is also extremely handy in the lineout (winning four on his own throw) and has managed 18 tackles, missing just one. Another match under his belt could see him right up there.

Finally it is worth mentioning Alasdair Strokosch, who has also had one-and-a-half games. Although Andy Robinson selected him ahead of Barclay initially, I would be a little surprised if he came straight back into the team. He gives aways a lot of penalties, carries about as poorly as Croft (7 metres in 15 carries) and only managed 12 tackles.

So what does this mean?
Well, that’s a tricky one. These are after all raw statistics and no weight can or has been given to the importance of a given action — be it a tackle, a run, an offload or a turnover. Similarly Ireland have only played two games (one against Italy) and Wales have yet to face the Italians themselves (which I’m sure will give their statistics a boost).

However I think there are a couple of points well worth making:

Andy Robinson knows his back-row talent
Eyebrows were raised when AR announced that Ross Rennie would be keeping the mighty John Barclay out of the 7 shirt for Scotland. However he chose very well: Barclay has been very good (and helps to contribute to the argument-for-another-day that opensides can be converted more easily than blindsides) but Rennie has been outstanding. Combine that with the impressive form of David Denton (carrying 153 metres in 48 carries, beating 6 defenders and offloading 4 times) and there is even an argument to be made of just transfering the Scottish backrow en masse to the Lions team.

Chris Robshaw is carrying Tom Croft
Everyone was surprised at Robshaw being made Captain (although as a Harlequins fan I was delighted!) but he has justified it with his work rate and commitment. No other flanker works as hard and effectively at he does … and yet he is still considered to be “not a proper 7”. I think the statistics show he can mix it with some of the finest backrows in the world and not be at all embarrassed by his performance: 40 tackles at 100% in three games! However Croft has gone missing in action too frequently in the last three matches. I think it is now he and not Robshaw who will lose out to a fit-again would; and like many I would like to see Robshaw at blindside (where he would be hailed as one of the top 6s in the championship) and Wood at openside.

Two “six-and-a-halfs” isn’t necessarily so bad
When Croft does show up he is fairly useful and does provide that crucial extra option in the lineout. The team who are really playing wih two 6.5s though are Ireland, with Ferris and O’Brien. O’Brien is obviously a huge presence and big-game player but he does need to work on his discipline. Ferris looks a little like he might be a flat-track bully but is a fine allround footballer who performs a crucial disruptive role.

And the Lions contenders will be …
I have heard from many a happy Welshman that it will be who will be drafted in to the Welsh team. And I think with their flankers that is a verry good point: they have a large pool of excellent and useful players to call upon. But let’s not forget that these young tyros themselves only announced themselves onto the international scene recently.

Based on the statistics so far, I would guess that the flankers on tour will be: J Barclay (Scotland), R Jones (Wales), D Lydiate (Wales), S O’Brien (Ireland), R Rennie (Scotland), C Robshaw (England), S Warburton (Wales).

And to start? Well … tell me what you think and I’ll share my choices and the most popular selections later!