Lies, damned lies, and statistics

I had orginally wanted to blog on some of the more interesting statistics and statistical oddities which have accrued during this year’s six nations — in particular, I had seen the Grauniad message boards creaking under the weight of delighted Welsh and Irish supporters laughing at Chris Robshaw’s famous 11 carries for 2 metres, and I thought that was one hell of an oddity. And although the statistics will never capture the true intensity of any given moment — Sam Warburton’s tackle on Tuilagi only counts as one tackle, after all — there are some very interesting patterns that emerge.

However the problem with the raw data is that it is … deeply fascinating, actually. And can be sliced and diced in many ways. This ties in with the buzz today of who is going to make the Lions tour (and who will start the tests) — particuarly in the one area we seem particularly strong, the back row.

All statistics courtesy of ESPN Scrum. Please note that players have not played the same amount of games thanks to the bloody FFR and injuries.

Tom Croft and Chris Robshaw (England)
The English flankers have been labelled (and even dismissed) as “two 6.5s” — although given Croft’s absence around the park it could even be argued that it is only one 6.5 and his wannabe-winger mate. However if there was ever a player to pick up the slack it is the English captain.

Chris Robshaw leads all home-nation’s flankers in total number and percentage of tackles made (40 in 3 games, and is one of only three flankers to have missed no tackles) and also in carries made. His famous 11 carries for 2 metres is entirely as a result of being the player to take contact for wussy little fly-halves and the like — and he is now at 34 carries for 42 metres in his three games and has finally beaten a defender. He has passed the ball 11 times — approximately 25% of the time he recieves it.

Tom Croft, on the other hand, has been largely anonymous. He has carried 13 times for 46 metres in his three games, beating one defender and making one clean break; and passing an average of once per match. He has however held his own in the line-out, winning 8 from his own throw and stealing 1 against Wales and remains the top line-out flanker in the home nations; however his tackling is nearly the worst, making 22 and missing 4 in three matches.

Both flankers have made a turnover, and both have conceded penalties (Robshaw two).

Stephen Ferris and Sean O’Brien (Ireland)
These two had a fantastic RWC2011 (O’Brien in particular) but give the impression of being a slightly unsettled combination. Perhaps this is a case of picking the two best flankers available regardless of position.

Immediately noticeable are the similarities between the two players statistics: Ferris averages 10 carries a game for 22 metres; O’Brien averages 11.5 carries a game for 28.5 metres. However when considering the quality of opposition it is apparent that Ferris is more of a flat-track bully, his statistics flattered by a romp against Italy, and that O’Brien is more of a big-match player (making twice as many metres on basically the same number of carries against Wales as opposed to Italy). However O’Brien is the most penalised of all the flankers in the home nations (although I’m sure Strokosch may have had something to say about that if he had finished the match against Wales), and neither flankers are winning any turnovers for their teams.

Sam Warburton and Dan Lydiate (and Ryan Jones and numerous others) (Wales)
Ah the diffulties of assessing Wales! Many players have put in a shift on the flank for them, so the statistics are arguably a little meaningless. However there are still some points of interest which we can pick up on. Dan Lydiate in his two games has carried ten times for 22 metres; and made 23 tackles (missing 2). He also passes about 25% of the time he gets the ball. Sam Warburton has had only a game and a half — and in those matches has carried 11 times for 4 metres and made 14 tackles (missing 2). He also puts in his share at the lineout, taking three on his own throw against England alone.

Strangely the most statistically impressive performances have come from Ryan Jones and Steve Shingler — co-incidentally the twoWelsh flankers to have secured a turnover so far. Ryan Jones is the only flanker to have kicked a ball, and he pulls his weight at the lineout and has put in his fair share of tackles (despite missing proportionately more than any other). Steve Shingler is an outstanding footballer (three offloads from ten carries) and didn’t miss a tackle.

It will be interesting to see who Warren Gatland chooses to face France as (not to put too fine a point on it) the work rate from all of these flankers will have to go up to counteract that mighty French back-row.

Ross Rennie and John Barclay (and Alasdair Strkosch) (Scotland)
With this combination it could easily be argued that Andy Robinson has picked two openside flankers — and the statistics go some way to back this up.

Ross Rennie is statistically the best all-round British flanker of the tournament so far — and let’s face it his performances have been magnificent. In three games he has carried 32 times for 114 metres (the greatest distance carried in total and per game by a British flanker so far), making four clean breaks, beating 5 defenders and offloading seven times. He passes as often as he runs and has won 3 turnovers for Scotland. He has 39 tackles (missing 6) — second only to Chris Robshaw.

John Barclay also has the statistics of an openside. In his one-and-a-half games, he has made 20 carries for 20 metres and beaten three defenders. He is also extremely handy in the lineout (winning four on his own throw) and has managed 18 tackles, missing just one. Another match under his belt could see him right up there.

Finally it is worth mentioning Alasdair Strokosch, who has also had one-and-a-half games. Although Andy Robinson selected him ahead of Barclay initially, I would be a little surprised if he came straight back into the team. He gives aways a lot of penalties, carries about as poorly as Croft (7 metres in 15 carries) and only managed 12 tackles.

So what does this mean?
Well, that’s a tricky one. These are after all raw statistics and no weight can or has been given to the importance of a given action — be it a tackle, a run, an offload or a turnover. Similarly Ireland have only played two games (one against Italy) and Wales have yet to face the Italians themselves (which I’m sure will give their statistics a boost).

However I think there are a couple of points well worth making:

Andy Robinson knows his back-row talent
Eyebrows were raised when AR announced that Ross Rennie would be keeping the mighty John Barclay out of the 7 shirt for Scotland. However he chose very well: Barclay has been very good (and helps to contribute to the argument-for-another-day that opensides can be converted more easily than blindsides) but Rennie has been outstanding. Combine that with the impressive form of David Denton (carrying 153 metres in 48 carries, beating 6 defenders and offloading 4 times) and there is even an argument to be made of just transfering the Scottish backrow en masse to the Lions team.

Chris Robshaw is carrying Tom Croft
Everyone was surprised at Robshaw being made Captain (although as a Harlequins fan I was delighted!) but he has justified it with his work rate and commitment. No other flanker works as hard and effectively at he does … and yet he is still considered to be “not a proper 7”. I think the statistics show he can mix it with some of the finest backrows in the world and not be at all embarrassed by his performance: 40 tackles at 100% in three games! However Croft has gone missing in action too frequently in the last three matches. I think it is now he and not Robshaw who will lose out to a fit-again would; and like many I would like to see Robshaw at blindside (where he would be hailed as one of the top 6s in the championship) and Wood at openside.

Two “six-and-a-halfs” isn’t necessarily so bad
When Croft does show up he is fairly useful and does provide that crucial extra option in the lineout. The team who are really playing wih two 6.5s though are Ireland, with Ferris and O’Brien. O’Brien is obviously a huge presence and big-game player but he does need to work on his discipline. Ferris looks a little like he might be a flat-track bully but is a fine allround footballer who performs a crucial disruptive role.

And the Lions contenders will be …
I have heard from many a happy Welshman that it will be who will be drafted in to the Welsh team. And I think with their flankers that is a verry good point: they have a large pool of excellent and useful players to call upon. But let’s not forget that these young tyros themselves only announced themselves onto the international scene recently.

Based on the statistics so far, I would guess that the flankers on tour will be: J Barclay (Scotland), R Jones (Wales), D Lydiate (Wales), S O’Brien (Ireland), R Rennie (Scotland), C Robshaw (England), S Warburton (Wales).

And to start? Well … tell me what you think and I’ll share my choices and the most popular selections later!

Giving up cigarettes

This year I have decided to give up smoking. Now that I’m actually giving up, I have to say it’s pretty bloody difficult.

I had decided to give up before I was 30 a long time ago — when I was about 21 I think. This had always struck me as reasonable: it is not that I don’t enjoy smoking, but giving up before I turned thirty would give my lungs the chance to recover before the slow decline of middle age took over. And as I puffed my way through my twenties I did make the occasional fitful attempt: I stopped after university for about eight months; I cut down hugely whilst working more internationally. And yet; and yet. There is just something so … awesome about nicotine. It’s fantastic. You feel sharper. You even get to go outside for a smoke. And so it never quite happened and I continued smoking away.

This is the year I turn 30. Apart from feeling horrendously old, I am feeling the need to get myself more in shape and sorted out or my middle age will alas be a short one. I had thought to give up at New Year: I did cut down, but I just couldn’t quite manage to stop entirely. And so I’m now trying to give up again, this time for Lent. I think 40 days (excluding Sundays) should be long enough to overcome this addiction.

But it is tough. It’s not that I actually want a cigarette: they smell unpleasant, they taste pretty grim, they make me feel pretty gruesome after a heavy night, they even impact my sleep. But I do want to smoke. I want the nicotine hit, the swim, the rush. I want that smell of fine tobacco. I even think I want the taste. There are those particularly tricky times when all I can think about is how much I want a cigarette right now. And then there are the “phantom” withdrawal symptons: the shakes, the bone-aches, the nausea, the knowledge that I could make it all so much better with one little smoke. But this is it. This is the chance to stop smoking. And I really need to tough it out now if I’m ever going to give up before I’m thirty.

Besides those things are bastardly expensive.

Now I know that no one likes a quitter, but any tips would be much appreciated …

Six Nations 2012: who will tour with the Lions?

So I’ve been keeping an eye on the ongoing ups and downs of the home nations throughout this six nations and I think I should really come up with a half-term touring party for the Lions. I’m not sure how big the squad will be, so I’m going to guess 45 — which is bound to be on the large side but will ensure that all the contenders are covered! Maybe I’m just hegdging my bets; maybe I just have very little faith in Warren “Actually-it-was-my-plan-all-along-to-use-novice-flyhalves-and-wings-at-the-RWC” Gatland and his selectorial abilities (although he is better than Andy Robinson, who I personally believe is the best forwards coach in the hemisphere).

Anyway (Players in bold as probable Test match starters):

Props: A Jones, A Corbisiero, G Jenkins, D Cole, C Healy, E Murray
Hookers: R Ford, R Best, D Hartley
Locks: P O’Connell, R Grey, AW Jones, C Lawes, D Ryan, G Parling
Flankers: S Warburton, R Rennie, D Lydiate, S O’Brien, C Robshaw, J Barclay
No8: D Denton, T Faletau, J Heaslip

Scrum Halves: M Phillips, E Reddan, M Blair
Fly Halves: J Sexton, O Farrell, R Priestland, T Flood
Centres: B O’Driscoll, M Tuilagi, J Davies, G D’Arcy, B Barritt, J Hook, J Roberts
Wings: T Bowe, L Halfpenny, G North, C Ashton
Full Backs: R Kearney, S Hogg, B Foden

What do you reckon?

Six Nation 2012 Lions Watch: round 3

So the half-way point is upon us, and to my mind some players are starting to look more and more likely to have cemented their places on the tour (if not in the test XV). Last round I had tentatively suggested the following:

1. G Jenkins
2. R Best
3. A Jones
4. R Grey
5. P O’Connell
6. D Lydiate (as a full time blindside I think he edges Robshaw)
7. S Warburton (being run close by Rennie — let’s see how he does when he’s fit again)
8. D Denton (nothing against Faletau, but I think Denton is getting better at a faster rate)
9. M Phillips
10. T Flood (again by default)
11. G North
12. J Davies
13. B O’Driscoll
14. L Halfpenny (he’s an excellent winger)
15. R Kearney

Near misses/bench from:
A Corbisiero: really holding up well
C Robshaw: one hell of an engine.
R Rennie: he’s really very, very good. And Andy Robinson will make him better.
T Faletau: starting to look like a shoot-out between him and Denton for No8.
G Laidlaw: useful as cover for both 9 and 10?
B Foden: the most in danger here — both within England (Brown is on superb form) and for a Lions spot (Hogg is only 19 and looked hella classy).
R Priestland: harsh not to include him as a starter, but if the Lions are to have a non-kicking fly half he needs to be simply phenomenal everywhere else.

Of these I think the following are almost guaranteed their tour places (injuries permitting):
Forwards: O’Connell, Grey, G Jenkins, Best, Warburton, Rennie, Denton
Backs: (Sexton and Preistland will be going), BOD, J Davies, G North, R Kearney
Fewer than you might think — but then who knows what will happen between now and Lions selection day?

So onto the third round — a full round this time! — and who has helped or hindered their Lions chances.

Ireland
Going up:
J Sexton: the game he needed. Much more in control. However this was, with respect, against Italy; and he will need to show similar levels of game-control against France, England and Scotland to claim that 10 shirt for his own.
K Earls: did fill that 13 shirt rather well.
T Bowe: great finishing on the wing
J Heaslip: looking better than he did in the first round.

Going down:
R Best: not a game to remember for him.
C Murray: seems to have picked up Ben Youngs’s Disease

Solid as ever:
P O’Connell: marauding in the loose, strong in the line out, and some great tactical decisions.
R Kearney: nailed on for a start?

England
Going up:
L Dickson: much better than Youngs, but I’m not sure about his sniping or his box-kicking.
O Farrell: great performance at fly-half (which was a bold choice), could be forcing his way right into the mix.
M Tuilagi: like Jamie Roberts, but with skill, defence and apparently actually using his brain.
G Parling: great work from someone who seems to have been dismissed as the “new Borthwick”.

Going down:
C Lawes: his carrying technique is rather poor for a second row, which was exposed cruelly in the 75th minute. perhaps lacking in sharpness.
C Robshaw: well, not going down so much as not keeping pace with the other 7s out there. However he could be a handy back-row replacement (natural 6; international experience at 7 without being embarrassed; can cover 8).
B Youngs: needs to take a sabbatical or something. And lose about five kilos.
T Flood: tricky to say this again, but his star may have been eclipsed by Farrell’s.
C Ashton: anonymous.

Solid as ever:
A Corbisiero: if A Jones did get the nudge on him it had more to do with illegal technique than any given weakness.
B Foden: he has forgotten how to use his brain in it’s most effective manner. That said: not bad.
B Barritt: now I’m sure there are much better Lions centres out there, but he looked rather handy at 12. Again his defence is outstanding.

Wales
Going up:
T Faletau: great work at the base of the scrum.
A W Jones: good grunt work, looking like he could make the tour given the general shortage of young and excellent locks at the moment.
D Lydiate: great work from a natural blindside playing blinside.

Going down:
J Roberts: IMO the worst performer on the pitch. Completely one-dimensional bosh-merchant, who managed to injure himself in a effort to “DOMINATE” and who would’ve been carded if he had stayed on. Amazing that someone studying to be a doctor can be so thick.
R Preistland: He did not like it up him. Needs to recover quickly before this becomes a habit. And now his kicking from hand has gone the way of his place kicking too.

Solid as ever:
M Phillips: managed the game quite brilliantly when Wales were down to 14 men.
S Warburton: The kind of perfromance we have come to expect from Sam. Certain to tour (injuries permitting)
J Davies: Sound, unflashy, and yet so much better than Roberts.
G North: not outstanding, but survived an examination.
L Halfpenny: great play again, but I’d still prefer to see him on the wing.

Scotland
Going up:
R Rennie: outstanding. Pity we never got to see Rennie v Warburton last round: these two are shooting it out for the starting shirt.
S Hogg: great finish, excellent running … if Foden continues his slide, we may see him on the bench given he can cover centre too.
L Jones: always good to see a small winger doing well.

Going down:
A Jacobsen: too many errors for Chunk, although it warms my heart to see him hurtling around the pitch.

Solid as ever:
D Denton: was surprised to see him come off, but part of a Scotland backrow that really took it to the French and left Harinordoquy the worst of the lot — not often that happens!
R Grey: again a solid performance, although perhaps not up to his best.
R Ford: much better in the loose and finding his feet as captain.

So for the new Lions XV I am going to propose:

1. G Jenkins
2. R Ford
3. A Jones (although he is under pressure here)
4. R Grey
5. P O’Connell
6. D Lydiate
7. S Warburton
8. T Faletau
9. M Phillips
10. J Sexton
11. G North
12. M Tuilagi
13. B O’Driscoll
14. L Halfpenny
15. R Kearney

Subs (assuming match-day squad of 22 — which is due at some point to become 23, I think)
16. R Best
17. A Corbisiero
18. AW Jones
19. R Rennie
20. M Blair
21. O Farrell
22. S Hogg

What do you think?

Six Nations 2012 Lions Watch: round 2

At the end of last week’s games, I had tentatively suggested the following Lions XV (and near-misses):

1. G Jenkins
2. R Best
3. A Jones
4. R Grey
5. P O’Connell
6. C Robshaw (he’s never a seven)
7. S Warburton
8. T Faletau
9. M Phillips
10. T Flood (again by default)
11. G North
12. M Tuilagi
13. B O’Driscoll
14. M Evans
15. R Kearney

Narrow misses/bench from:
R Ford: solid if uninspiring
A Corbisiero: has the edge over Rhys still
D Ryan: I would like to see him start for Ireland
C Lawes: just not enough outstanding second row performances to displace him
D Denton: If he kicks on …
S O’Brien: the question is, where should he play?
C Murray: no other scrum-half shone, and Youngs went backwards fast
J Davies: it strikes me that he offers more than Jamie Roberts
R Priestland: I don’t think the Lions will want a 10 who won’t take conversions
J Sexton: needs to up the ante a little
B Foden: nothing wrong, but not as imposing as Kearney.

Before diving in to the next round too deeply, I did want to briefly discuss some of these positions and placings, particularly around the centres. I know people think it may be a little unfair of me to have Tuilagi-BOD (and for that matter, Flood at 10) given that they are not currently playing. However this tour is not going to happen for another year and I feel that there should be a certain lassitude for players who are likely to be playing then (even if they are not playing now). Given that none of the contenders have upped their games sufficiently to force their ways past these players in particular, I feel that they still offer the best midfield for the Lions.

However I will admit that my choice of props did cause me a slight pause. Propping is one area of the game I know very well, and I have my doubts about G Jenkins’s long-term fitness and A Jones’s technique: Adam Jones in particular seems to only boss the scrums when he is allowed to bind illegally, and I fear that against a top front row and with sharper refereeing he could be pinged into penalty oblivion. However there is no one else stepping up to replace these two, so I feel they deserve to keep their places.

On to the second, and shorter (silly FFR), round of matches:

England
Going up:
A Corbisiero: very solid in the tight — in my personal propping opinion, Castro didn’t really dominate him fully. Useful around the park.
D Cole: again solid in the scrum, winning the occasional turn-over in the loose. Good stuff for a tight-head.
C Robshaw: again doing the work of three players in the back row. I will have to blog further on his “shocking” metres/carry stats though…
B Barritt: glimpses of attacking potential to couple with his defensive prowess.
L Dickson: excellent distribution. Remember this is the man who stopped Foden from becoming a scrum-half at Saints.

Going down:
T Croft: again largely anonymous, although marginally less so than last week.
B Youngs: who is this imposter?
B Foden: more a case of trying too hard, but given that his name was in the mix for the captaincy you would hope for more composure and thought.

Wales
Going up:
G North: more wow. Composure, hands, power, pace.
G Jenkins: good to see him back on the park. However I feel that he was very lucky not to have been pinged in the breakdown more often (particularly at the end of the first half).
J Davies: great lines and pace. Sound in defence. But he’s not better than BOD for that 13 shirt.
D Lydiate: excellent work against an extremely sound Scottish back row.

Going down:
J Roberts: to my mind he is becoming increasingly one dimensional and wouldn’t look out of place in an England midfield.

Scotland
Going up:
D Denton: massive performance from the new No8. Fast, good hands, and always making up ground.
R Rennie: (whisper it, but) would’ve waltzed into the Welsh team on the back of this performance.
S Hogg: Excellent outing for the new boy — unlucky with the disallowed try. Only 19!

Going down:
C Cusiter: lost that zippy, zero-step pass that got him into the 2005 squad. Plus brain-fart.
(There were a few poor performances from Scotland, but many of those players aren’t in consideration for the Lions, so I will leave those for now.)

Give them a passport
If Denton keeps improving then we may not even need Sergio’s magnificence!

So my new Lions XV looks like:

1. G Jenkins
2. R Best
3. A Jones
4. R Grey
5. P O’Connell
6. D Lydiate (as a full time blindside I think he edges Robshaw)
7. S Warburton (being run close by Rennie — let’s see how he does when he’s fit again)
8. D Denton (nothing against Faletau, but I think Denton is getting better at a faster rate)
9. M Phillips
10. T Flood (again by default)
11. G North
12. J Davies
13. B O’Driscoll
14. L Halfpenny (he’s an excellent winger)
15. R Kearney

Near misses/bench from:
A Corbisiero: really holding up well
C Robshaw: one hell of an engine.
R Rennie: he’s really very, very good. And Andy Robinson will make him better.
T Faletau: starting to look like a shoot-out between him and Denton for No8.
G Laidlaw: useful as cover for both 9 and 10?
B Foden: the most in danger here — both within England (Brown is on superb form) and for a Lions spot (Hogg is only 19 and looked hella classy).
R Priestland: harsh not to include him as a starter, but if the Lions are to have a non-kicking fly half he needs to be simply phenomenal everywhere else.

Clashes to look forward to
The Welsh front-row v The English front-row:
This could help settle some debates over propping spots. Sadly with S Walsh refereeing this is going to come down to “who cheats most effectively”.

The Scottish back-row v The French back-row:
A real test for Denton and Rennie in particular against some of the best players in the hemisphere.

Players to watch out for
J Sexton: needs to dominate the game against Italy.
R Best: an excellent chance to see his scrum play under the microscope.
“Whoever covers for BOD” — Earls perhaps? The biggest of shoes to fill.
J Heaslip: being left behind by the other No8s so far
S O’Brien: time for a big game.

S Hogg: surely he will get a start somewhere; let’s see how his composure holds up against the French.

S Warburton: Sam should be back, and needs to put in the sort of performance he did during the RWC to see off Rennie’s challenge.
R Preistland: chance to make the Lions shirt his own against a No10 who will probably be his antipode in terms of skills, style, etc.

B Morgan: can he have the impact from the start as he does from the bench?
L Dickson: can he see off B Youngs for the rest of the Championship if, as expected, he starts?
M Tuilagi: if he’s back, who will make way in the England midfield?
C Ashton: needs to score some tries!

Six Nations 2012 Lions Watch

As ever after the first round of a post-World Cup Six Nations, Lions speculation has started. After all, these are the first proper test matches (ignoring Wales’s transparently money-spinning “Test” against Australia) to be played, and there are a number of players to keep an eye on as they rise and fall, in and then out, of speculation and consideration. Big questions need to be answered: can Sam Warburton lead Wales all the way? How many players will the Scots contribute? And how will the new-look England perform? Is Paul O’Connell nailed on?

For reference, my pre-Six Nations Lions XV would look a little something like:

1. G Jenkins
2. R Ford
3. Adam Jones
4. R Grey
5. P O’Connell
6. S O’Brien
7. S Warburton
8. J Heaslip
9. M Phillips
10. T Flood
11. C Ashton
12. M Tuilagi
13. B O’Driscoll
14. T Bowe
15. R Kearney

Narrow misses/bench from:
M Rees: perma-injured Wales hooker — depends how his latest comeback goes
D Hartley: needs to regain form. And Ford is excellent in the loose and probably the top line-out thrower in the Championship
E Murray: won’t play on a Sunday
C Lawes: not convinced he has lived up to the hype as yet
D Lydiate: the cruelest, narrowest miss of all; would get in under normal circumstances
B Youngs: appears to have lost form
R Priestland: Flood is one of the finest game managers, but could yet be displaced by this tyro
J Roberts: I can’t help but feel if he were wearing white he would be dismissed as a bosh-merchant. BOD can make anyone look good.
G North: again a very close call here. If he can keep it going, he will be in the team
B Foden: Class, but becoming a little predictable.

So (first one of these so the format might change) here is an opening weekend assessment of where the teams and players are, and who I think we will see on the field for the first test.

England
Going up:
A Corbisiero: good work in the scrum, excellent work in the loose.
D Cole: very impressed — much improved from previous showings. Another few more games like this …
C Robshaw: Let’s face it he probably won’t make the squad, but top tackling and carrying stats (and covered for the invisible Croft admirably)

Going down:
T Palmer: Ignomiously hauled off at half-time
T Croft: where was he? Hardly any tackles, hardlty any carries — between him and Dowson they left Robshaw to do the work of three back-rowers!
B Youngs: He seems to have put on a few kilos and forgotten his rugby brain.
C Ashton: Not the player he was — seems to have lost his sharpness.

New boys:
O Farrell: Not overly impressed, but excellent in defence and did nothing wrong
B Barritt: If we can see some attack from him, I could see him move ahead of J Roberts (Wales) in the pecking order. I understand he prefers 12.
B Morgan: Great impact

Scotland
Going up:
D Denton: monster. Another excellent forward find from the man who (IMO) is probably the best forwards coach in the hemisphere
R Grey: phenomenal carrier, excellent in the line-out … him and POC would make for one hell of an engine room
M Evans: a live-wire on the few occasions the ball made it out to him

Going down:
E Murray: should have put Corbisiero in his place and didn’t really achieve that
R Ford: more anonymous than usual

Wales
Going up:
L Halfpenny: Always useful to have an extra kicker, but I still see him as more of a wing
M Phillips: excellent tempo and control
J Davies: Nice running, I’d like to see a little more creativity though
G North: wow.

Going down:
None of their Lions contenders had a particularly bad game to my mind.

New boys:
G North: not sure if we should call him a new boy, but excellent work from the young winger
A Cuthbert: promising in parts

Ireland
Going up:
R Best: The more I see of him, the more I think he might actually start the Lions tests
C Murray: Outplayed by Phillips, but a handy player none-the-less.

Going down:
J Sexton: did not really boss the game as he would have hoped.
P O’Connell: maybe I was just expecting too much of him, but I thought he was largely anonymous. Also grabbing a player and shouting “maul” does not a maul make.
G D’Arcy: not the same without BOD next to him.
S O’Brien: didn’t dominate as he did at the RWC.
J Heaslip: Outplayed by Faletau

Get them a passport
T Dusautoir: just phenomenal
V Clerc: fantastic finisher
S Parisse: still excellent

And so my new Lions XV looks like:

1. G Jenkins
2. R Best
3. A Jones
4. R Grey
5. P O’Connell
6. C Robshaw (he’s never a seven)
7. S Warburton
8. T Faletau
9. M Phillips
10. T Flood (again by default)
11. G North
12. M Tuilagi
13. B O’Driscoll
14. M Evans
15. R Kearney

Narrow misses/bench from:
R Ford: solid if uninspiring
A Corbisiero: has the edge over Rhys still
D Ryan: I would like to see him start for Ireland
C Lawes: just not enough outstanding second row performances to displace him
D Denton: If he kicks on …
S O’Brien: the question is, where should he play?
C Murray: no other scrum-half shone, and Youngs went backwards fast
J Davies: it strikes me that he offers more than Jamie Roberts
R Priestland: I don’t think the Lions will want a 10 who won’t take conversions
J Sexton: needs to up the ante a little
B Foden: nothing wrong, but not as imposing as Kearney.

Caption contest

Going through my old photos (and also realising that I hadn’t posted here for too, too long) I found a few classics from the General Election. Some of them ended up pretty rubbish and some shall not be shared, but there is one that just … tickles me. So caption contest time please!

#positivepolitics casts a warm glow

Last Friday, in an attempt to inject a bit of substance to the political debate on Twitter, we organised a day of positive politics for Mother’s Day. And as you can tell from the title of the post, it went extremely well.

First I was delighted with the general uptake: from each and every side of the political spectrum people were anxious and willing to join in; and reassuringly we even attracted Twitterers who had been alienated by the tone of the debate recently. Perhaps our the greatest achievements were the decision by #labourlost to suspend tweeting for 24 hours [thank you!] and the involvement from the political establishment. This was a sentiment that many people were genuinely interested in and receptive to; a sentiment that reflects the peril of the Bubble and how detached from reality the day-to-day mudslinging is.

Second we had a fantastic impact. Not only did Tweetminster detect the change in sentiment but my own very crude analysis of my feed and the #positivepolitics hashtag reflected this. Simply stated: Twitter was a more positive place when it came to politics on Friday. So well done to everyone for that. In fact we can go a little further: since there was a greater engagement from the Conservative half of the Twittersphere, we saw greater positivity come through in their numbers.

On the other hand it was somewhat disappointing to see the lengths that some people would go to avoid it. As a whole most of the MPs were extremely receptive towards the idea with a single exception. On balance the Labour crowd was less willing to engage — and indeed seemed happy to gleefully misinterpret the sentiment behind it! — and we can see this reflected by their less positive sentiment scores. As anyone who has followed my protests at stat-abuse will know, I’m extremely wary of drawing conclusions from a single event as there are a number of unique contributing factors that can skew it; however combined with a quick analysis of the last two months of my timeline, I respectfully submit that after Friday we have the evidence to suggest that if any party is deserving of the “Nasty Party” tag it is certainly not the Conservatives or their supporters.

I was really grateful and touched to receive so much support for this — a campaign started simply because the tone of the political debate on Twitter had descended to the lowest, most childish, form of name-calling — and I’m deeply reassured to discover that I’m not the only one out there. I think that the Great British electorate is a bit fed up of name-calling; of point-scoring; of negative, non-issues-oriented campaigning: we here; we’re engaged; and we want to hear how you intend to fix the status quo, not how the other party is going to break it. All of the parties were able to come up with good ideas (in the end) and all of the parties had supporters willing to support ideas from other parties. We were even content to let the latest shameful example of expenses abuse pass without too much comment!

To everyone who showed that it is possible to have a grown-up difference of opinions on the internet: a massive thank you. You know who you were, and you did a great job. We did it [link NSFW].

And this is for all of you.

A Mothering Sunday present for everyone: #positivepolitics

I never cease to be astounded and dismayed by the level of partisanship on Twitter. Over the last couple of weeks I’ve dropped in and out on some truly shameful “conversations”: fueled by the latest scandal and whipped on by MPs who really should know better, thousands of horrible, snide, vicious tweets have been sent: tweets that bypass the basis of the argument and delve straight into mud-slinging.

Of course we all do it to a greater or lesser extent. However there is a difference between an honest and passionate argument and just being rude, a difference that we can all recognise when we see it. One of the things that I think (particularly the younger members of) the Twittersphere forgets to ask is: would you say this to someone’s face? A search over the last few BBC Question Time Tweets would show you the particularly inane, and often just plain rude, examples of a “robust political debate” as I’m sure it’s perpetrators would term it. I read these and the question that springs to mind is: do you kiss your mother with that mouth?

In all seriousness, I’m worried: I’m worried that this is becoming the norm; I’m worried that this is becoming the accepted, mainstream tone of the political debate on Twitter. This really concerns me: not just because I find it distasteful and childish and symptomatic of the worst part of politics; but because this is not what grown-up politics should be about. The population of the country on Twitter is small; the population also interested in Twitter is smaller still — but it is the grassroots, passionate part. And slowly we are inculcating them with the sense that this the good and right in political debate. We have brainwashed them into politics of the populist, demagogic type.

Well, I say enough. It’s time to re-engage with the issues. Spurred on by the excellent “Positive Policy” series arranged by Steve (@OxfordSpring), and encouraged by the warm reception so far, I want to reclaim the political Twittersphere for those of us who are actually interested in politics. And I think that Mother’s Day serves as a perfect holiday for this landmark.

My original plan was to inoculate against the invective with a whole weekend of positivity: a moratorium on political attacks for two days. Of course this is too long for Twitter. So my call to action is this:

This Friday, March 12th, I would like everyone to try to ensure that all their political tweets are positive. No mudslinging. No personal, ad hominem, attacks. No “#ivenevervoted…”; no “#labourlost”; no “#toriesout”. No straw men. If you must say something political, say something positive or at least grounded in reality. Don’t even mention the party you don’t plan on voting for. We can even use the #positivepolitics tag.

And anyone who’s bad will have a note sent to their mother.

A convenient convergence for the Conservatives and Europe

This was an article originally posted here as part of a series on Positive Policy organised by Steve Conyers (@OxfordSpring). The series continues on House Of Twits; and has so far covered Tax, Immigration, Foreign Policy, Localism and Smaller Government.

For at least as long as I remember the Conservative party could be characterised as a party divided by Europe. Prospective leaders have always had to make their positions clear: party orthodoxy has been euroscepticism, and the party will impose it’s litmus tests. Europe even played a part in the most recent leadership contest, and Mr Cameron was conspicuous by his conformity.

But Mr Cameron went further than his recent predecessors as leader of the Conservative Party. Last year, Mr Cameron withdrew the Conservative MEPs from the EPP, the mainstream centre-right coalition in European politics, and formed a new right wing group, the ECR. This decision appeared short-sighted from a narrow, political perspective as he risked isolation and impotence in Europe; and troubling (albeit politically expedient given the UKIP threat) from a broader ideological perspective as he appeared to drag the Conservative party towards its Eurosceptic wing. But perhaps the greatest cause for concern was his choice of partners in this bold new venture: very right-wing politicians, predominantly from Eastern Europe, and often with less than savoury reputations. As a moderate, pro-European Conservative, these impressions deeply concerned me.

Strangely, the “optics” are at least as troubling as the decision itself. At its simplest, it appeared to be a desperate sop to the more reactionary wing of his party: a clumsy attempt to lure back voters lost to UKIP. Symbolically it was even more troubling: Mr Cameron appeared to be signalling publicly and internationally that actually he was more ideologically aligned with his new friends than with his more traditional (and, one would hope, his more “natural”) allies across Europe such as M Sarkozy. It also signalled that perhaps Mr Cameron wasn’t going to be the pragmatist he insisted: perhaps the boy wonder was more right-wing than we had suspected.

Most peculiarly it was a reactionary move that appeared to be out of step with Mr Cameron’s otherwise progressive agenda and the mood of the voters he is trying to court. As a country we have become more liberal socially and more conservative economically — perhaps a cultural counterpart to the entrenchment of the NHS and the City into the mainstream. Culturally we have become more European even as economically we have become more Atlanticist.

Perhaps Mr Cameron was relying on the received wisdom: apparently Britain is more Eurosceptic than most of Europe. It’s easy to understand this attitude, as there are significant problems with Europe which the media are more than willing to let us know about. Brussels was long the pinnacle of tax-payer funded excess. It’s inefficient, bureaucratic and curiously unaccountable. Moreover, there is the fear of Federalism; that we should no longer be Sovereign.

However there are so many brilliant things that have come out Europe that improve our life in Britain. Some are small conveniences, some are fundamental: everything from the ease of taking a tour around Central Europe through to the intangible and difficult to quantify impact of a prosperous Europe on our day-to-day lives. Moreover, operating within the framework of the EU is frequently in our best interests. The world is becoming smaller; and more and more agreements of greater and greater importance need to be made at the international level, including climate change legislation and working to contain the threat of Iran. Taking a more international approach to many problems in the future should help ease their economic footprint: it is encouraging to hear Dr Liam Fox is working to bring France back into NATO, for example; and a “Robin Hood” Tax could only work if implemented internationally.

All this is somewhat beside the point: there are many more issues of much greater importance and urgency facing the next Prime Minister than Europe. The Conservative position is frankly not of any consequence for the time being. In November last year a survey for the Times suggested that only 3% of voters ranked Europe as their most important issue – a number which I’m sure will have retreated further in the face of more pressing concerns. It is an issue of periodic importance, and even then only when we don’t have anything else more important to worry about.

But even if by some strange quirk Europe does become an issue, the Conservatives have a unique opportunity to dominate this issue; and should Mr Cameron win the election, he is excellently positioned to take a vital role in the future of Europe if he seizes the opportunity – and co-incidentally put to bed the decades-long European angst that afflicts his party.

First it is important to note that Mr Cameron has a lot of leeway on Europe. He can be vague and woolly. He blundered in offering The Sun a “cast-iron guarantee” that he would hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty — his hands are effectively tied on this — but that “blunder” allowed him to position himself at the more Eurosceptic end of his party and stem any potential losses to UKIP. By keeping to his previously announced positions, especially as they are sketched out on the Conservative party website, Mr Cameron sits firmly in the mainstream of British society; moreover no party can credibly challenge that position or seek to displace him from it.

In Europe the establishment is wary of Mr Cameron, no doubt as a consequence of his referendum guarantee and his withdrawal from the EPP. Indeed, a victorious Mr Cameron will have serious clout: as a newly elected Prime Minister he has a mandate, the threat – or, if necessary, the result – of a referendum, and a not insignificant caucus in the European Parliament. Mr Cameron can go to Europe in the ascendency. This is why this is a golden opportunity to embrace Europe. By doing so, Mr Cameron can negotiate from a position of strength, particularly if he can ride his honeymoon period, and he has the opportunity to have his say and (whisper it) get his way. The fundamental principles of the European Union are perhaps less Atlanticist than he would like, but they are sound principles that are not at all against Conservative ideology.

Mr Cameron runs under circumstances unique to modern Conservative leaders, and this applies more than ever to Europe. He has bought himself some room and some time: partly through his own manoeuvres, partly through missteps by his political foes, partly through chance. If he is bold, he has a chance to shift the existing paradigm enveloping the Conservative party on Europe; and if he is prepared to accept the reality of our place in Europe and work from within, he will have sewn this issue up for the foreseeable future.